2026E supply–demand balance
(46,782)t
About 2.6% of 2026E demand; 21,581 t deficit in 2025
SDIC Securities, 12 August 2026
2026E China lithium-carbonate demand
1,771,600t
+44.07% year on year, forecast
SDIC Securities, 12 August 2026
2026E China lithium-carbonate supply
1,724,818t
production + imports − exports; forecast
SDIC Securities, 12 August 2026
The number that travels from a Chinese broker note into English is usually the rounded shortfall. On 12 August 2026, SDIC Securities — the brokerage and research arm of China State Development & Investment Corporation, a central state-owned investment group — published a lithium-market note on WeChat. Table 12 of that note puts 2026 China lithium-carbonate supply at 1,724,818 tonnes and demand at 1,771,600 tonnes. The quoted balance is a 46,782-tonne shortfall. That is about 2.6% of the demand line. It is a sell-side forecast, not a census, and not a price.
The same table already tells a sequence. Through 2024 it shows a surplus (23,487 tonnes in 2023, 61,149 in 2024). In 2025 it flips to a 21,581-tonne deficit, about 1.8% of that year’s demand. The 2026 shortfall is the report’s next step in that sequence, not an independent measurement. Supply in the 2026 column is still growing fast: production 1,393,781 tonnes plus imports 336,022 tonnes, minus 4,985 tonnes of exports. Demand is still a little ahead. SDIC’s own year-on-year figure on the demand line is 44.07% for 2026E. A market that cannot quite balance at that rate of supply growth is the claim. It is a claim inside a broker note.
This briefing keeps those tonnes, explains the Chinese 10,000-tonne unit on the storage line, and flags an internal discrepancy instead of smoothing it away. It does not turn 46,782 tonnes into an Australian-dollar bill of materials. That would mash a 2026 forecast onto a one-day China spot print.
Exhibit 1
China lithium-carbonate supply vs demand
View chart data
Scroll horizontally to view all columns.
| China lithium-carbonate supply vs demand | Supply | Demand |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 609251 t | 585762 t |
| 2024 | 906637 t | 845780 t |
| 2025 | 1208104 t | 1229684 t |
| 2026E | 1724818 t | 1771600 t |
SDIC Securities Research forecast, 12 August 2026. 2023–2025 are the report’s historical series; 2026E is an estimate, not an observed outcome. The 2026 gap is 46,782 tonnes — about 2.6% of that year’s demand.
The 525,000 vs 528,500-tonne gap
Chinese broker tables often print lithium in units of 10,000 tonnes. Table 9 of the same note forecasts 2026 storage-battery lithium-carbonate consumption at 52.5 of those units. That is 525,000 tonnes, not 52.5 tonnes. The identity underneath is stated in the note: 750 GWh of storage-battery cell-capacity growth, times 0.7 kg of lithium carbonate per kilowatt-hour. 750 gigawatt-hours × 0.7 kg/kWh is 525,000 tonnes. The ratio is SDIC’s, attributed to a 2024–2035 lithium supply–demand paper the note cites. It is not a measurement of RENOZ cells.
Elsewhere the note discusses storage demand as 528,500 tonnes. That is a 3,500-tonne internal discrepancy, about 0.7% of the table-9 line. At the same 0.7 kg/kWh it would be about 755 GWh rather than 750; on 750 GWh it would be about 0.705 kg/kWh. The report does not say which. RENOZ does not pick a winner. The useful fact is that the report disagrees with itself on a line that feeds the 2026 balance. Treat 46,782 tonnes as SDIC’s published arithmetic, not as a number that survived an audit.
Table 1
How table 9 reaches 525,000 tonnes
2026E storage-cell capacity growth
- Figure
- 750 GWh
SDIC’s stated conversion ratio
- Figure
- 0.7 kg lithium carbonate per kWh
750 GWh × 0.7 kg/kWh
- Figure
- 525,000 t
Table 9 as printed (10,000-tonne units)
- Figure
- 52.5 × 10,000 t = 525,000 t
| Step | Figure |
|---|---|
| 2026E storage-cell capacity growth | 750 GWh |
| SDIC’s stated conversion ratio | 0.7 kg lithium carbonate per kWh |
| 750 GWh × 0.7 kg/kWh | 525,000 t |
| Table 9 as printed (10,000-tonne units) | 52.5 × 10,000 t = 525,000 t |
The 0.7 kg/kWh ratio is SDIC’s, attributed to a 2024–2035 lithium supply–demand paper the note cites. It is not a RENOZ cell design. 528,500 tonnes would be about 755 GWh at the same ratio, or 0.705 kg/kWh on 750 GWh. The report does not say which.
Table 2
2026 storage-battery lithium-carbonate demand — internal discrepancy
Table 9 (Chinese 10,000-tonne unit)
- As printed
- 52.5 × 10,000 t
- In tonnes
- 525,000
Same table, from the 0.7 kg/kWh identity
- As printed
- 750 GWh × 0.7 kg/kWh
- In tonnes
- 525,000
Capacity-coverage discussion
- As printed
- —
- In tonnes
- 528,500
| Place in the SDIC note | As printed | In tonnes |
|---|---|---|
| Table 9 (Chinese 10,000-tonne unit) | 52.5 × 10,000 t | 525,000 |
| Same table, from the 0.7 kg/kWh identity | 750 GWh × 0.7 kg/kWh | 525,000 |
| Capacity-coverage discussion | — | 528,500 |
Both 525,000 and 528,500 appear in the 12 August 2026 SDIC Securities note. RENOZ does not choose one. The 3,500-tonne gap is 0.7% of the table-9 line, and it sits on a line that feeds the 2026 balance.
Table 3
China lithium-carbonate supply–demand balance
Production
- 2023
- 460,095
- 2024
- 675,744
- 2025
- 970,425
- 2026E
- 1,393,781
- 2030E
- —
- 2035E
- —
Imports
- 2023
- 158,748
- 2024
- 234,722
- 2025
- 242,969
- 2026E
- 336,022
- 2030E
- —
- 2035E
- —
Exports
- 2023
- (9,592)
- 2024
- (3,829)
- 2025
- (5,290)
- 2026E
- (4,985)
- 2030E
- —
- 2035E
- —
Total supply
- 2023
- 609,251
- 2024
- 906,637
- 2025
- 1,208,104
- 2026E
- 1,724,818
- 2030E
- —
- 2035E
- —
Total demand
- 2023
- 585,762
- 2024
- 845,780
- 2025
- 1,229,684
- 2026E
- 1,771,600
- 2030E
- 2,348,700
- 2035E
- 2,871,100
YoY and CAGR
- 2023
- —
- 2024
- 44.39%
- 2025
- 45.39%
- 2026E
- 44.07%
- 2030E
- 7.30%
- 2035E
- 4.10%
Supply-demand balance
- 2023
- 23,487
- 2024
- 61,149
- 2025
- (21,581)
- 2026E
- (46,782)
- 2030E
- —
- 2035E
- —
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2030E | 2035E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production | 460,095 | 675,744 | 970,425 | 1,393,781 | — | — |
| Imports | 158,748 | 234,722 | 242,969 | 336,022 | — | — |
| Exports | (9,592) | (3,829) | (5,290) | (4,985) | — | — |
| Total supply | 609,251 | 906,637 | 1,208,104 | 1,724,818 | — | — |
| Total demand | 585,762 | 845,780 | 1,229,684 | 1,771,600 | 2,348,700 | 2,871,100 |
| YoY and CAGR | — | 44.39% | 45.39% | 44.07% | 7.30% | 4.10% |
| Supply-demand balance | 23,487 | 61,149 | (21,581) | (46,782) | — | — |
Source: SDIC Securities. Source: SMM; SDIC Securities Research Institute. Note: 2026-2030E CAGR=7.3%, 2030E-2035E CAGR=4.1%; 2026 import and export volumes are forecast data. 2026E supply is production plus imports minus exports (1,393,781 + 336,022 − 4,985 = 1,724,818). Demand for 2030E and 2035E is given; supply is not. The note stops balancing after 2026.
The same day’s spot print
This note is a 2026 forecast. The Mariana Lithium bulletin published the same day is a 12 August China LFP and lithium-chemical spot print. That is a separate briefing. A tight 2026 balance sheet does not, on its own, explain a one-week cathode move, and a one-week cathode move does not prove the 2026 shortfall. Demand for 2030 and 2035 is given in table 12; supply is not. The note stops balancing after 2026, which is another reason not to read the 46,782-tonne line as a decade-long squeeze.
Source
- SDIC Securities — Lithium-market report, 12 August 2026. Published 12 Aug 2026, accessed 14 Aug 2026.
Chinese-language WeChat-hosted broker note from SDIC Securities, the research arm of China State Development & Investment Corporation, a central state-owned investment group. Supply, demand, and balance figures are SDIC forecasts unless labelled as history. The note is not a ministry census and not a price.
Related briefing
- China storage-grade LFP price, 12 August 2026
Spot bulletin · Mariana Lithium
A 2.6% gap is a forecast, not a squeeze
The 46,782-tonne shortfall is SDIC’s arithmetic on SDIC’s estimates, on a 1.77-million-tonne demand line. A miss on imports, utilisation or the storage conversion ratio can close it. The 525,000 vs 528,500-tonne gap is left visible because the report did not reconcile a line that feeds that balance. This is not a verified 2026 outcome, a RENOZ forecast, or a China-spot price.